Double Trouble in the Sudan: 2011 as a Catalyst of Change?

Inarguably, 2011 was a continuum-shifting year in Nile Hydropolitics. While the wider Arab Spring contributed to revolution in Egypt in 2011, the division of Sudan in January of the same year to create South Sudan, the world's newest sovereign state, was arguably a greater dichotomic shift in the region. On a national level the coincident alongside the global food crisis in 2008 greatly catalysed a continuum shift in Sudan, transforming the country from oil-orientation more towards agriculture, which naturally requires greater hydrological resources and hydraulic infrastructures (Cascao and Nicol 2016). This is a significant shift as, like Egypt, Sudan has one of the largest natural water deficits, so a shift towards a more hydro-centric industry will only further strain water allocations between riparians (Mielnik 2021).

These factors can foreground an argument that Sudan is the Nile riparian that has experienced the greatest transformation, with the economic and political continuum shifts, together with the 2011 split, completely changing its statehood. Alongside the wider political changes in the heart of Africa upstream on the Nile, it can be argued that the political transformations involving Sudan have greatly altered the view of the Nile, its water allocations and the general condition of statehood in the Basin (Mielnik 2021). The greater emphasis towards domestic hydraulic development has deteriorated its formerly strong political-diplomatic alliances with Egypt, severing the 1959 agreement alliance. On the other hand, relations have concurrently improved with Ethiopia, through agreements on economic integration and bilateral trade. The shift in Sudanese foreign policy coinciding with the shift of hydropower in the Nile Basin should be interpreted as a further impetus of power shifting across the riparian states, with Sudanese hydrological policy leaning towards the hydro-hegemon. 

In a similar vein to Egypt, it has been internal changes in Sudan that have directly corresponded to its hydrological developments and transformations. In one regard, this can indicate that Sudan itself determines and influences hydrological power shifts in the Nile Basin, which can attribute Sudan as the 'kingmaker' in the Nile hydropolitical arena (Cascao and Nicol 2016).

Moving towards 2011, it is important to look at South Sudan's novel independence as important not only in the numeric increase of riparians in the Nile Basin, but also in the manner in which it has transformed the hydropolitical arena, no less in Sudan itself. In one regard, the independence of South Sudan has itself catalysed the transformative [North] Sudanese policy direction, shifting away from its 1959-esque colonial hegemonic agreements.The timelines of South Sudan's independence is significant, in the fact that it coincides with Egypt's hydro-hegemonic downfall during the Arab Spring, as mentioned in the previous blog. 

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